The war involving Iran has now surpassed the one-and-a-half-month mark, with various parties offering varied and at times conflicting signals. While the US has threatened Iran to open the Strait soon, there remains broadly widespread uncertainty over how this conflict ultimately resolves.
Right now, Frontier is working with three scenarios.
1. A Shorter War – This is a scenario where we envision de-escalation within less than a quarter. We think there have been historical occasions where conflicts in the Gulf region have seen high levels of escalation, only to find resolution after some form of a ceasefire. We think this remains a plausible path from here.
2. The Longer War – This is a scenario we think resembles the ongoing situation in Palestine and Lebanon, where conflicts persist without a clear or decisive resolution. Within a scenario like this, hostilities could drag on for an extended period, keeping pressure across global markets and supply chains elevated for much longer than most would anticipate.
3. The Sharper War – This is a scenario where significantly more parties become directly involved, resulting in a major, large-scale, all-out war. However, unlike the Longer War, this scenario may not necessarily persist over an extended period — the sheer intensity of the conflict could, in fact, accelerate its conclusion.
Across these three scenarios, we think the overall impact on both the global economy and the local economy could be broadly different in nature, magnitude, and duration.
Our clients would have already received a detailed report to their emails on this, alongside the numbers we associate with each of these varied scenarios. The full report has also been accessible on our Athena reports platform since the 31st of March, 2026. If you still haven’t had a chance to read through it, click here! If you are yet to be a subscriber, please do get in touch with us for a trial subscription to our reports at clientconnect@frontiergroup.info.