Quick Update on US-Israel attacks on Iran
At the end of the previous week, Israel and the US launched a military intervention in Iran. In response, Iran retaliated with strikes across US and Israeli targets in the region. Airspace across parts of the Middle East was temporarily closed and has since reopened, while all sides are signaling a continuation of hostilities. We are not military experts by any means. In fact, military forecasting probably has an even worse track record than economic forecasting. With that in mind, this update outlines our initial thinking on how the broader trajectory of military conflict in the Middle East could evolve and how it may affect the Sri Lankan economy.
The key message is that this is undoubtedly a delicate global moment geopolitically. It creates space for greater regional confrontation than before, with the risk of spillovers across the Middle East. Countries located between Iran and Israel are already experiencing indirect damage due to these tensions.
The full Quick Update contains our views on the economic impacts of the ongoing attacks, our broad scenario mapping and corresponding oil price implications as well as the implication on the Sri Lankan economy.
Clients with access to Frontier Athena can view the full report at athena.frontiergroup.info. For limited-time access, please contact us at research@frontier.info