The South Asia Macro Watch - November 2025
November turned out to be an eventful month for South Asia, bringing a mix of positive developments and emerging challenges. The standout regional positive was India’s progress towards a tariff deal with the US which we think could ease the burden the country currently faces. If finalised, this would support India’s ongoing growth trend above 6%, and by extension, lift overall growth prospects across the region. Sri Lanka presented its Budget for 2026 which depicted the continued fiscal overperformance with revised 2025 figures coming in stronger than initially budgeted. This fiscal discipline, combined with broader macro improvements, has supported a much stronger than expected recovery trajectory since the 2022 crisis. At the same time, the IMF has delayed its next tranche for Bangladesh until the February 2026 elections, adding another layer of risk. Pakistan and the Maldives continue to face fiscal pressures of their own. Pakistan’s recent floods have further weakened economic conditions, while inflation has begun to rise again, largely due to energy costs. The Maldives, on its part, released its Budget for 2026 with new legal and political developments that will shape its fiscal outlook going forward.
All in all, November showed that the region is moving forward, but not without a few bumps along the way. Some countries are seeing clear improvements, while others still face uncertainties that could slow things down. As we head into 2026, how these political and economic developments unfold will shape the next phase for South Asia, but for now the region remains on a generally steady, though uneven path. The full report covers further details, including:
1. Top 3 things you should know about the regional countries.
2. Summary of key economic indicators for the month.
3. Key news articles in detail,
Clients with access to Frontier Athena can view the full report at athena.frontiergroup.info. For limited-time access, please contact us at research@frontier.info