This is Frontier’s monthly flagship report covering in detail Sri Lanka’s macroeconomic situation and our key forecasts. The November edition focuses on the Sri Lankan macroeconomic story in the context of the recent devastation the country faced as a result of the cyclone.
The report is structured around an Executive Summary that highlights the key takeaways and sets out our views on the exchange rate and interest rates. This is followed by a detailed section that lays out our broader economic narrative for Sri Lanka, incorporating the latest data and developments.
The November story centers on the strong fundamentals the Sri Lankan economy has demonstrated over recent months, with particular emphasis on the growing role of the private sector and its contribution to driving economic activity. It also examines the delay in multilateral inflows and what their eventual disbursement could mean for the current account, with these dynamics discussed alongside the impact of the cyclone.
This month’s focus turns to the fiscal story, although the analysis was conducted before the full effects of the cyclone became apparent. It provides a deep dive into our revised fiscal forecasts for 2025 and 2026 within the broader macroeconomic context. That said, we expect these projections to shift to some extent as the implications of the current crisis become clearer.
For those interested in the key data points on Sri Lanka’s macroeconomic developments, the final section provides the latest on the trade balance, current account balance, reserves, exchange rate, interest rates, and inflation – including our forecast on CCPI inflation up to mid-2026.
Our clients would have received the report to their emails and is accessible on our Athena reports platform since 1st of December. If you still haven’t had a chance to read through click here! If not, please get in touch with us for a trial subscription to our reports (clientconnect@frontiergroup.info).